I’ve worked around TV ratings since the mid-90s and given the then recent arrival of Sky, predictions were that high-rating scheduled programming on TV would die within a few years. These prophecies didn’t quite come true – indeed the year I joined ITV (1995) the controversial Diana interview pulled in a massive 22.7 million viewers. Six years later Only Fools and Horses attracted over 21 million on Christmas Day and in 2003 Coronation Street peaked at 19.4 million. The anticipated demise was not as rapid or as extreme as expected but it is true to say that the days of several programmes a day achieving 10m+ viewers are now well in the past. When I started at ITV we were disappointed if a new drama got 10m, now they’d be happy with half of that. Given the almost infinite amount of content out there now it is hardly surprising that the days of 30 million people watching a half hour programme where a landlord serves his wife divorce papers (EastEnders 1986) are now long gone. The highest rating soap operas on British TV now rarely score 15% of that number of viewers. The decline has been seen throughout the schedule, although perhaps not at quite the same rate across the board.

Where soaps used to be the one genre which ensured massive figures and around which schedules were built, the comfort and familiarity which used to be provided by them now seems to be satisfied elsewhere. In 2024 we saw success amongst game shows/quizzes (The 1% Club, The Wheel), celebrity competitions such as Race Across the World, newer formats such as The Traitors as well as quality dramas such as Mr Bates vs The Post Office. However, none of these compare to the figures of yesteryear and the death of the schedule has seemed to be inevitable.

There is, however, one massive exception to the rule. Back in the ‘90s England football games averaged around 16 million viewers. In 2024 the semi-final of the Euros (England v Netherlands) peaked at more than 20 million. It’s starting to seem that live sport is the only way to ensure viewing figures in line with those of the past.  Even Netflix has realised its unique power with its recent acquisitions in NFL, WWE and Women’s football. Does this mean the likes of ITV and C4 need to completely ignore schedules and into focus entirely on the world of VOD?

Or is there a twist in the tale of the dying schedule in 2024? In 2023 the highest rating programme on Christmas Day was the King’s Speech with less than 6 million viewers – a far cry from the 20 million + we used to regularly see. You might expect 2024’s figures to reflect this continuing decline but no – amazingly what we saw was the highest rating Christmas programme in 16 years. It wasn’t sport and it wasn’t live and it proved that good TV with a powerful publicity campaign still works. And it wasn’t just Gavin and Stacey which defied the odds, attracting over 12 million viewers live and nearly 20 across the week  – Wallace and Gromit also brought in nearly 10 million viewers on Christmas Day and the likes of EastEnders and Call the Midwife increased on last year’s performances.

So, whilst TV is certainly a very different landscape from the 90s, is there a chance that with the right programming the TV schedule might survive? There is one other programme which has remained strong through the decline of linear broadcasting. Match of the Day still achieves similar viewing figures to the 90s. Just think how well they could have done if they’d chosen Smithy as the new presenter!

By Penny Browell